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Validity of the own-children method of fertility estimation: results from Iran's 1986, 1996 and 2006 censuses

Meimanat Hosseini Chavoshi, University of Tehran
Taha Nourollahi, Ministry of Science, Research and Technology, Iran

This paper examines the validity of the own-children method (OCM) of fertility estimates derived from the Iran 1986, 1996 and 2006 Censuses and the 2000 IDHS by a detailed investigation of mortality assumptions, the presence of non-own children, age misreporting and undercount. ASFRS and TFRs are estimated for Iran by such variables as place of residence, province, religion, and nationality for the period 1972-2006. The results obtained alternatively from two matching procedures (using relationship to head of household and mothers’ line number) are investigated to see the accuracy of the fertility levels and trends. The OCM estimates will also be compared with those obtained from other indirect methods. Despite some shortcomings, the results suggest that most of the underlying assumptions of the OCM are still valid, and this method is still a useful indirect method in estimating fertility for Iran and countries in transition.

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Presented in Poster Session 5: Poster Session 5: contexts