Population scenarios in a lifecourse perspective: the impact of household formation on fertility careers
Nicole Van der Gaag, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
Joop De Beer, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
Govert Bijwaard, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
For assessing the impact of changes in demographic behaviour it is necessary to have insight in the processes underlying demographic events from a lifecourse perspective. The lifecourse is viewed as a sequence of states and events. Transition rates determine the probability of moving from one state to another. On the basis of assumptions about values of transition rates, the multistate projection model MicMac can produce detailed population scenarios. The model produces both projections at the macro level and simulations of individual life courses. The paper illustrates how MicMac can be used to make scenarios of fertility based on assumptions about household formation. For this purpose we use data on life histories collected in the Netherlands. The scenarios show how changes in household formation and dissolution affect the age at having a first child, and how changes in the age at having a first child affect the probability of having more children.
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Session 52: Population forecasting: new approaches and uses in policy