Failure and success: in-sample and out-of-sample demographic forecasts

Nico Keilman, University of Oslo

There is a growing literature on the quality of population forecasts. All of these forecasts relate to the future, and their accuracy can be established ex post facto. However, a large literature is concerned with explanation and prediction of current, not future behaviour. This paper explores the predictive success of those in-sample predictions. Likelihood statistics for published life course analyses are investigated. To what extent does predictive success depend on subject matter, on sample size, on type of dependent variable?

Presented in Session 69: Forecasting, methods and data