Internal migration and transition to second child: the case of Turkey

Mehmet Ali Eryurt, Hacettepe University

Turkey has experienced various intensive social and economic changes in the last century. Changes in fertility and migration occurred simultaneously, they were mutually reinforcing processes. During last five years total fertility rate declined almost 23 percent, from 2.71 to 2.1. These fertility rates make a detailed analysis of the transition to second birth meaningful. Therefore in this study it is aimed to analyze the main determinants of the transition to second birth focusing on internal migration. The data source of the study comes from TDHS-2003. A stepwise multiplicative intensity-regression model (proportional hazard model) is estimated to measure the impact of internal migration and other covariates. Additionally, the study intends to test four main hypothesis explaining the impact of migration on fertility (socialization, adaption, selectivity, disruption). In the case of Turkey we found evidence for selectivity and adaptation hypothesis regarding the second birth.

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Presented in Poster Session 3: Migration, environment and spatial demography