The choice of fertility level adjustment in China

Jing Xu, Renmin (People's) University of China

Aimed at existed problems of current family planning policy performance in China, the paper puts forward to sustainable development population condition and sustainable family planning policy request. According to national resident fertility desire survey data in 2002 and 2007, the paper reveals urban-rural resident desired fertility rate and the distance between fertility desire and current family planning policy. The paper uses revelation of experiment on two-children fertility policy areas in 2006 for reference, and extracts experience and lesson from developed countries. Made use of figures of the 2005 national 1% sample survey, the paper designs three simulation of TFR adjustment projects, makes population projection of population development trend of China in the future, finds out the optimal opportunity of family planning policy adjustment.

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Presented in Poster Session 2: Fertility, family and children